October 8, September 9 and Louis Brus

Let me explain. October 8 11:45 am is the time when 2008 Nobel Chemistry Prize will be announced. September 9 is when the award ceremony of Kavli Prize in Nanoscience will take place. Louis Brus (whom I predicted before to receive the 2008 Nobel Chemistry prize) is receiving it. Now that I gave it another thought, listened to the mockingbirds, Brus may not get the Nobel at all. I know there are awards like the Saudi King Faisal Award that usually goes to the people on the Nobel short list such as Steve Chu (he received King Faisal award in 1993 and he later got the Nobel in 1997). But this one is different. Kavli prize is given in Norway by an imitation Nobel ceremonia sort of fulfilling the job of making the Nobel left outs happy. This is useful, especially in a world where there is only one Nobel prize and people are known to lobby for it.

What I take it is that Louis Brus will not get a Nobel so Kavli was given to him so that other nano giants can summon it. I might be wrong but the same mockingbirds also told me that it was the same reason Iijima (the carbon nanotube guy) got the Kavli, Nobel was not going to be given to carbon based nano something again. They simply don't like to re-award the same area twice, at least in a decade apart.


Now that I got it off my chest, I would like to narrow my list and name (guess) 3 folks that will receive the 2008 Nobel Chemistry prize:

George M. Whitesides (This one is almost certain. He is on top of the hirsch index)
Akihisa Inoue (This material scientist has over 1500 papers and a trillion citations and makes perfect sense to show that Nobel prize honors diversity: he is Japanese!)
Galen D. Stucky (OK. this is not as certain. He is my post doc boss. I sort of want him to win. But he has over 600 papers and citation trophies. His problem is though he is not as greedy to go after the prize. Everyone at UCSB talks about why he should win, except him and his students.)

Since Louis Brus dropped out of the list, this trio became more realistic to me. But don't get too excited, the Nobel committee is known to like Biochemists and 2008 is another perfect year to award those enzymatic miracles.

Nobel Prize in Chemistry 2008 might go to Zhong L Wang, George Whitesides, Akihisa Inoue, Galen Stucky or Louis Brus

We all know that Nobel Prize follows a pattern. It is rare that a subdivision gets the price in consecutive years (except for Biochemistry since biochemists in the selection committee are -evidently- louder than the others). For example, chemistry nobel prize was given to Organic chemistry in 2005, then Biochemistry in 2006 and Physical chemistry in 2007. If you go to earlier years you see lots of Biochemisty: Biochemistry in 2002, Biochemistry in 2003, Biochemistry in 2004. Another Organic Chemistry award was in 2001 when the old Organic chemists needed to be recognized. The last time Nobel prize in Chemistry went to Materials Chemistry was in 2000. I'm not even going into nationality patterns (i.e. 2007 was the year for Germans - Physics and Chemistry both!)

Here's a quick list:
2012 - Biochemistry
2011 - Materials Chemistry
2010 - Organic Chemistry
2009 - Biochemistry
2008 - Biochemistry
2007 - Physical Chemistry
2006 - Biochemistry
2005 - Organic Chemistry
2004 - Biochemistry
2003 - Biochemistry
2002 - Biochemistry
2001 - Organic Chemistry
2000 - Materials Chemistry
1999 - Physical Chemistry
1998 - Physical Chemistry
1997 - Biochemistry
1996 - Materials Chemistry

Nanoscale materials did not get a nobel prize since the bucky balls got it in 1996. I feel like it is time for some nano something gets the prize. It will be hard since there's not a trio or less that invented this field but I still think it's doable.

Take mesoporous materials for example. Jeffrey S. Beck of ExxonMobil for his MCMs, Galen Stucky of UCSB for his SBA-15 (also happens to be my postdoc advisor ;) and Thomas J. Pinnavaia of Michigan State comes forward. MCM-41 and SBA-15 are the landmarks of this mesoporous country. A nobel prize can very well be divided into these three guys.

But I think some others will get it if nano is awarded (though mesoporous is perfectly nanoscale). I've done a Web of Science search on who published most in nano (in the US) and I selected the following:

356 papers - Professor Zhong L. Wang of Georgia Tech
225 papers - Professor Paul Alivisatos of UC Berkeley
221 papers - Professor Chad Mirkin of Northwestern
195 papers - Professor Richard Smalley of Rice (1996 Nobel prize winner)
193 papers - Professor Charlie Lieber of Harvard
159 papers - Professor Mostafa Al-Sayed of Georgia Tech
157 papers - Professor Peidong Yang of UC Berkeley
145 papers - Professor Moungi Bawendi of MIT
136 papers - Professor Hongjie Dai of Stanford
134 papers - Professor Thomas E Mallouk of PennState
105 papers - Professor Louis E Brus of Columbia

Most in this list have advisor-student relationship and Louis Brus for example comes very early in the ladder.

There are other big shots in materials and chemistry in general, such as George Whitesides and Akihisa Inoue.

So, my guess is that 2008 Nobel Prize in Chemistry will be awarded to one of these three sets:
1) Zhong L. Wang, Charlie M. Lieber and Louis E. Brus
2) George M. Whitesides, Galen D. Stucky and Akihisa Inoue
3) Louis E. Brus, George M. Whitesides and Akihisa Inoue

Any other bets? Please do tell.

Al Gore should reject the Nobel prize

Don't get me wrong this award signifies the increasing awareness of global warming. Our planet is now sicker than ever. We have a responsibility to cure this before the next generation, the time when it'll be too late.

But Al Gore should reject the Nobel prize simply to show urgency of the matter. It will create a disturbance well enough to shake the administrations, NGOs and media around the world. Otherwise, it will only stay as a reward for the people working hard and raise the question whether all this effort was for a recognition. Skeptics are already speaking up.

Also, with Nobel in tow, will Al Gore run?

Here's the official announcement from Nobel committee: